Hurricane Isaias is expected to strengthen as it barrels toward the US Gulf Coast

BAYOU LA BATRE, Ala. — Isaias surged toward the U.S. Gulf Coast on Thursday as the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, prompting mandatory evacuations, school closures and local government shutdowns in parts of Florida.

Isaias was forecast to intensify rapidly and bring strong winds and a life-threatening storm surge to the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama and southern Mississippi when it makes landfall along the northern Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Heavy rain and flooding were possible into the weekend as far inland as the Tennessee Valley.

"We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall," Michael Brennan, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said in a mid-morning update.

He added: "Today is the day to prepare and get ready and be in your safe place by tomorrow as conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the northern Gulf Coast as Isaias approaches."

The hurricane had maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph and was moving east-northeast at 10 mph as of early Thursday afternoon, the hurricane center said. It was centered about 355 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Coastal communities moved quickly to prepare, as officials in the Alabama cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach urged tourists to evacuate immediately, warning that bridges could be closed by midday Friday. At least four Florida school districts canceled late-week classes, while several counties announced mandatory evacuations for some coastal areas. The governors of Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency for dozens of counties ahead of Isaias' arrival.

Dauphin Island, a 15-mile-long barrier island off the Alabama coast, encouraged some people to voluntarily evacuate.

"That area is traditionally very vulnerable to storm surge — saltwater flooding — and that is also where most of the visitors are," Mayor Jeff Collier said Thursday of the western part of the island.

He said he didn't anticipate substantial damage, "but at the same time, these things are very fickle and a little jog here or there or some last-minute increase in strength, we just have to be prepared for the worst."

Water from the storm surge and high tide could reach heights of 5 to 7 feet in parts of Alabama and Mississippi, the hurricane center said. Isaias also could dump up to 15 inches of rain along parts of the Gulf Coast and spawn tornadoes overnight Friday into Saturday from Alabama to the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia. The hurricane is expected to quickly weaken after making landfall.

The National Weather Service told communities from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to Gulf County, Florida, to prepare for the possibility of "long-duration power outages."

The hurricane formed late in the season

Isaias developed more than four months into the Atlantic hurricane season and was one day short of tying a 121-year-old record for the area's latest-forming hurricane. According to the weather service, the record dates to 1905, when the year's first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct. 8.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Niño, which disrupts storm formation over the Atlantic. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon formed Wednesday off Mexico and where Tropical Storm Rachel, formerly a hurricane, was expected to approach northern Baja California, Mexico, and Southern California this weekend, the hurricane center said.
Isaias is expected to strike a swath of coastline that's familiar with major hurricanes.

One of the 20th century's worst storms, Hurricane Camille, killed more than 250 people after hitting land near Waveland, Mississippi, in 1969. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 razed neighborhoods in Mississippi, flooded New Orleans and killed nearly 1,400 people. And Hurricane Michael leveled homes and buildings near Panama City, Florida, in 2018.

Oil production and tourism are already affected

Ahead of the storm, oil and gas producers shut down a significant share of offshore production in the Gulf, which accounts for almost 15% of crude pumped annually in the U.S.

As of Thursday, about 63% of the oil production in the region had been temporarily halted, taking nearly 1.3 million barrels a day off the market, according to the Marine Minerals Administration. It said 121 of the Gulf's 371 manned oil platforms had been evacuated.

With oil prices already high, the production cuts are steep enough to affect markets, though other Gulf hurricanes have caused larger disruptions, said Jim Burkhard, global head of crude oil market research for S&P Global Energy. More concerning, he said, is whether Isaias strikes as a powerful storm near refineries.
As it moves inland, Isaias might also disrupt Saturday's college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama, a game President Donald Trump has planned to attend.

In Loxley, a small Alabama community where county officials were urging voluntary evacuations, Nichole Eubanks and her husband prepared to ride out the storm on their farm, which is home to dozens of animals, including pigs, donkeys and about 20 rescued cats.

In addition to securing their animal shelters and boarding up windows, they planned to put contact information on the hooves of their goats, donkeys and pigs in case they got loose.

"It's definitely scary, and you never really know where these storms are going to go and how bad it's going to be until it gets there," said Eubanks, 35.

In the Alabama fishing village of Bayou La Batre, Tony Rice and Lance Connor installed doors on their fishing boat Thursday, hoping to keep the worst of the storm out. The boat was one of many moored there, and Rice said they planned to move it to a less-crowded spot to decrease the chances of it bumping into other vessels once Isaias arrives.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey issued a state of emergency for 40 counties, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared one for 25 counties in the Panhandle and Big Bend regions. The state also planned to deploy a Miami-based urban search and rescue task force.

In Pensacola, officials said the airport will close to commercial flights Friday morning, while utility crews prepared for power outages and officials opened sandbag distribution sites. Mayor D.C. Reeves urged residents to check on older adult neighbors and others who might need help.

"Obviously no need to panic at this point," Reeves told a news conference. "This is really about preparation."